Not at all. I’m repeating a truthism: to make a claim about the territory, you should look at the territory. “Occamian prior works well” is an empirical claim about the real world (though it’s not easy to measure). “Probabilities need to be multiplied” is a lot less empirical (it’s about as empirical as 2+2=4). Therefore the former shouldn’t follow from the latter.
Just to clarify, are you referring to the differences between classical probability and quantum amplitudes? Or do you mean something else?
Not at all. I’m repeating a truthism: to make a claim about the territory, you should look at the territory. “Occamian prior works well” is an empirical claim about the real world (though it’s not easy to measure). “Probabilities need to be multiplied” is a lot less empirical (it’s about as empirical as 2+2=4). Therefore the former shouldn’t follow from the latter.