I think that that first bayes equation in the SSA section is supposed to be something more like this: (.5 x 10^-24) / (.5 x 10^-24 + .5 x 10^-11) = 10^-13 (sorry I don’t know how to enter equations here). The errors are that that first exponent in the numerator should be −24, not −11, and the answer is just 10^-13 or 1 x 10^-13, not 1 − 10^-13.
I think that that first bayes equation in the SSA section is supposed to be something more like this: (.5 x 10^-24) / (.5 x 10^-24 + .5 x 10^-11) = 10^-13 (sorry I don’t know how to enter equations here). The errors are that that first exponent in the numerator should be −24, not −11, and the answer is just 10^-13 or 1 x 10^-13, not 1 − 10^-13.
That was meant to be the chance of P2, not P1. Fixed now, thanks!