I’m not following the logic here. I presume that “fast takeoff” is supposed to mean that someone with increased intelligence from the first improvement is then able to think of a second improvement that would have been beyond what earlier people could have thought of, and so forth for additional improvements. The relevant time interval here is from birth to thinking better than the previous generation, which need have nothing to do with the interval from birth to reproductive maturity (an interval which is not immutable anyway). The person who thinks of the new improvement doesn’t have to be one of those who gestate the next generation.
I wasn’t thinking of reproductive maturity, I was thinking of it in the same way as you. We make some gengineered people, who grow up and become smart, and then they figure out how to make the next generation, etc. Well, how long does it take to grow up and become smart? 12 years seems like an optimistic estimate to me.
Or are you thinking that we could use CRISPR to edit the genes of adult humans in ways that make them smarter within months? Whoa, that blows my mind. Seems very unlikely to me, for several reasons; is it a real thing? Do people think that’s possible?
No, I wasn’t thinking of modification of adult somatic genes. I was thinking of reproductive maturity taking 12 years, which you’re right is also about how long it takes to reach adult levels of cognition (though not knowledge, obviously). The coincidence here leads to the ambiguity in what you said. Actually, I doubt this is a coincidence—it makes biological sense for these two to go together. Neither would be immutable if you’re making profound changes to the genome, although if anything, it might be necessary to prolong the period of immaturity in order to get higher intelligence.
I’m not following the logic here. I presume that “fast takeoff” is supposed to mean that someone with increased intelligence from the first improvement is then able to think of a second improvement that would have been beyond what earlier people could have thought of, and so forth for additional improvements. The relevant time interval here is from birth to thinking better than the previous generation, which need have nothing to do with the interval from birth to reproductive maturity (an interval which is not immutable anyway). The person who thinks of the new improvement doesn’t have to be one of those who gestate the next generation.
I wasn’t thinking of reproductive maturity, I was thinking of it in the same way as you. We make some gengineered people, who grow up and become smart, and then they figure out how to make the next generation, etc. Well, how long does it take to grow up and become smart? 12 years seems like an optimistic estimate to me.
Or are you thinking that we could use CRISPR to edit the genes of adult humans in ways that make them smarter within months? Whoa, that blows my mind. Seems very unlikely to me, for several reasons; is it a real thing? Do people think that’s possible?
No, I wasn’t thinking of modification of adult somatic genes. I was thinking of reproductive maturity taking 12 years, which you’re right is also about how long it takes to reach adult levels of cognition (though not knowledge, obviously). The coincidence here leads to the ambiguity in what you said. Actually, I doubt this is a coincidence—it makes biological sense for these two to go together. Neither would be immutable if you’re making profound changes to the genome, although if anything, it might be necessary to prolong the period of immaturity in order to get higher intelligence.