I tried to see if anyone else had previously made my argument (but better); instead I found these arguments:
I think the feasibility argument described here better encapsulates what I’m trying to get at, and I’ll defer to this argument until I can better (more mathematically) state mine.
“Yet the number of interactions required to make such a “perfect” simulation are vast, and in some cases require an infinite number of functions operating on each other to describe. Perhaps the only way to solve this would be to assume “simulation” is an analogy for how the universe (operating under the laws of quantum mechanics) acts like a quantum computer—and therefore it can “calculate” itself. But then, that doesn’t really say the same thing as “we exist in someone else’s simulation”.” (from the link).
This conclusion about the universe “simulating itself” is really what I’m trying to get at. That it would take the same amount of energy to simulate the universe as there is energy in the universe, so that a “self-simulating universe” is the most likely conclusion, which is of course just a base universe.