If you don’t know the current time, you obviously can’t reason as if you did. If we were in a simulation, we wouldn’t know the time in the outside world.
Reasoning of the sort “X people exist in state A at time t, and Y people exist in state B at time t, therefore I have a X:Y odds ratio of being in state A compared to state B” only work if you know you’re in time t.
If you carefully explicate what information each person being asked to make a decision has, I’m pretty sure your argument would fall apart. You definitely aren’t being explicit enough now about whether the people in your toy scenario know what timeslice they’re in.
The “directly relevant information” is the information you know, and not any information you don’t know.
If you want to construct a bet, do it among all possibly existing people that, as far as they know, could be each other. So any information that one person knows at the time of the bet, everyone else also knows.
If you don’t know the time, then the bet is among all similarly situated people who also don’t know the time, which may be people in the future.
If you don’t know the current time, you obviously can’t reason as if you did. If we were in a simulation, we wouldn’t know the time in the outside world.
Reasoning of the sort “X people exist in state A at time t, and Y people exist in state B at time t, therefore I have a X:Y odds ratio of being in state A compared to state B” only work if you know you’re in time t.
If you carefully explicate what information each person being asked to make a decision has, I’m pretty sure your argument would fall apart. You definitely aren’t being explicit enough now about whether the people in your toy scenario know what timeslice they’re in.
The “directly relevant information” is the information you know, and not any information you don’t know.
If you want to construct a bet, do it among all possibly existing people that, as far as they know, could be each other. So any information that one person knows at the time of the bet, everyone else also knows.
If you don’t know the time, then the bet is among all similarly situated people who also don’t know the time, which may be people in the future.