There’s also an element of “past performance is not a guarantee of future results”. It’s possible that someone correctly confidently predicted one thing for exactly the right reasons, and then confidently makes an error in the next thing for almost exactly the right reasons.
Likely, even, because the people who are confident about hard questions are more likely to be overconfident than have superpowers.
There’s also an element of “past performance is not a guarantee of future results”. It’s possible that someone correctly confidently predicted one thing for exactly the right reasons, and then confidently makes an error in the next thing for almost exactly the right reasons.
Likely, even, because the people who are confident about hard questions are more likely to be overconfident than have superpowers.