If someone firmly believes the end-of-the-world event is going to occur on Apr. 1st. 2020, he should be ready to issue promissory notes to pay any amount on Apr. 2nd, in return for very small (no?) charge.
Probably not for no charge, since writing the notes takes some effort, and any rationalist will assign a nonzero (though possibly very small) probability to the apocalypse not occuring in time.
A possible problem with bets made over such long periods is that people who don’t expect gold to become worthless in general by date X, but who do expect it to become worthless for them by date X, may also take the bet, skewing the results.
A simple example would be an old hedonist, who strongly expects to die within a few years, doesn’t care at all about what happens to his heirs, and would like some more money to spend while he is alive. Assuming that his prediction holds, by taking a bet that the apocalypse will happen by X, he gets some more money to spend while he is alive, and can then default on his debt by dying.
If someone firmly believes the end-of-the-world event is going to occur on Apr. 1st. 2020, he should be ready to issue promissory notes to pay any amount on Apr. 2nd, in return for very small (no?) charge. Probably not for no charge, since writing the notes takes some effort, and any rationalist will assign a nonzero (though possibly very small) probability to the apocalypse not occuring in time.
A possible problem with bets made over such long periods is that people who don’t expect gold to become worthless in general by date X, but who do expect it to become worthless for them by date X, may also take the bet, skewing the results. A simple example would be an old hedonist, who strongly expects to die within a few years, doesn’t care at all about what happens to his heirs, and would like some more money to spend while he is alive. Assuming that his prediction holds, by taking a bet that the apocalypse will happen by X, he gets some more money to spend while he is alive, and can then default on his debt by dying.