Prediction: In a month, if we look at vaccine doses administered per day in the U.S., the FDA’s approval of Comirnaty will not be reflected in a subsequent increase, even temporary, exceeding 10%. Confidence: 80%
In the week prior to the full approval, an average of about 404,000 Americans were initiating vaccination each day. As of Monday, approximately 473,000 Americans were getting their first shot each day.
Prediction: In a month, if we look at vaccine doses administered per day in the U.S., the FDA’s approval of Comirnaty will not be reflected in a subsequent increase, even temporary, exceeding 10%. Confidence: 80%
Subsequent evidence suggests I had the right idea but was overly precise in my predictions or should have tried to predict the effect over a longer period of time to avoid extreme but temporary outcomes:
Initial evidence suggests I was wrong: