Obviously, we agree on the fundamentals. But what exactly is the argument for waiting? Maybe polls will get closer?
I believe Zvi is arguing that since the betting market hasn’t moved much, despite the perdiction odds of Trump winning deteriorating, there is no reason to believe the betting market will make any moves the closer we get to election. The closer we get to election night, assuming the discrepancy stays constant, the bigger the value on the Biden winning / Trump losing bet.
Its only 16 days from the election. I am not so worried about the time value of money.
Super not an expert, saying it loud so I can be corrected if wrong:
I don’t think time value of money is the main thing here. The observed pattern seems to be that as the election draws closer, people get more information but the market stubbornly refuses to do so. If that pattern continues, then people get more edge as time goes on, meaning future bets will be more advantageous than current bets.
If your strategy is something like “put $100 on Biden as long as I think his odds are more than 5% better than the market thinks” this might not make much difference; waiting only helps in case Biden’s odds-according-to-you suddenly drop a lot. But if you’re going to bet different amounts depending on the gap, then waiting also helps in case Biden’s odds-according-to-you drop a little. (I think if they go up, you can just put more money in, so waiting hasn’t gained you anything. But you have to have some probability that they drop.)
If the odds according to you drop, you can also just sell your position.