I’d also like to advertise a challenge for my readers. You can email me with your predictions for a subset of my predictions with your own prediction. I’ll judge your predictions against mine using the logarithmic scoring rule.
Out of curiosity, why logarithmic scoring and not Brier scoring? (I like logarithmic scoring better, but you used Brier in the pseudorandomness contest.)
Would you also take money bets in addition to just virtual scores?
I like logarithmic better in general, but I decided to use Brier for the pseudorandomness contest because I decided I really cared about the difference between a 60% chance (i.e. looks basically random) and a 40% chance (kind of suspect). The log rule is better at rewarding people for being right at the extremes; Brier’s rule is better at rewarding people for being right in the middle.
Regarding bets: I’m willing to make bets, but won’t have a blanket policy like “I’ll take a bet with anyone who disagrees with me by 10% or more”, because that opens me up to a ton of adverse selection. (E.g. I wouldn’t bet with Zvi on COVID.) So… feel free to message me if you want to bet, but also be aware that the most likely outcome is that it won’t result in a bet.
(Also, the better I know you, the more likely I am to be willing to bet with you.)
Out of curiosity, why logarithmic scoring and not Brier scoring? (I like logarithmic scoring better, but you used Brier in the pseudorandomness contest.)
Would you also take money bets in addition to just virtual scores?
I like logarithmic better in general, but I decided to use Brier for the pseudorandomness contest because I decided I really cared about the difference between a 60% chance (i.e. looks basically random) and a 40% chance (kind of suspect). The log rule is better at rewarding people for being right at the extremes; Brier’s rule is better at rewarding people for being right in the middle.
Regarding bets: I’m willing to make bets, but won’t have a blanket policy like “I’ll take a bet with anyone who disagrees with me by 10% or more”, because that opens me up to a ton of adverse selection. (E.g. I wouldn’t bet with Zvi on COVID.) So… feel free to message me if you want to bet, but also be aware that the most likely outcome is that it won’t result in a bet.
(Also, the better I know you, the more likely I am to be willing to bet with you.)