There are few formal rules you can use with certainty here, but if you want better ways of convincing them you’re right, you should play metaculus, good judgement open, manifold, or otherwise engage in some other forecasting site. In enough time, you will be able to see which of you has the best world model, and start using the sources they’re using.
There are few formal rules you can use with certainty here, but if you want better ways of convincing them you’re right, you should play metaculus, good judgement open, manifold, or otherwise engage in some other forecasting site. In enough time, you will be able to see which of you has the best world model, and start using the sources they’re using.