There’s a set of recurring prediction-market flavored project ideas which people have, and a fair amount of resources going into attempts. This post gives a model which predicts which ones failed, and will fail, and why, so that we (collectively) can start either looking for clever workarounds, or stop wasting resources on the attempts.
There’s a set of recurring prediction-market flavored project ideas which people have, and a fair amount of resources going into attempts. This post gives a model which predicts which ones failed, and will fail, and why, so that we (collectively) can start either looking for clever workarounds, or stop wasting resources on the attempts.