But remember that the alchemists’ conclusion is correct. You can turn lead into gold. It’s harder than they thought, and the tools at our disposal are far more effective than they could have imagined. In the end, it turns out that the latter won out over the former.
In a case of uncertainty, you assign broad probability distributions. If the bet has a lopsided cost function, then uncertainty, “unknown unknowns”, etc, are reasons to take the bet. More uncertainty = more expected payoff.
But remember that the alchemists’ conclusion is correct. You can turn lead into gold. It’s harder than they thought, and the tools at our disposal are far more effective than they could have imagined. In the end, it turns out that the latter won out over the former.
In a case of uncertainty, you assign broad probability distributions. If the bet has a lopsided cost function, then uncertainty, “unknown unknowns”, etc, are reasons to take the bet. More uncertainty = more expected payoff.