If X->Z<-Y, then X and Y are independent unless you’re conditioning on Z. A relevant TAP might thus be:
Trigger: I notice that X and Y seem statistically dependent
Action: Ask yourself “what am I conditioning on?”. Follow up with “Are any of these factors causally downstream of both X and Y?” Alternatively, you could list salient things causally downstream of either X or Y and check the others.
This TAP unfortunately abstract because “things I’m currently conditioning on” isn’t an easy thing to list, but it might help.
If X->Z<-Y, then X and Y are independent unless you’re conditioning on Z. A relevant TAP might thus be:
Trigger: I notice that X and Y seem statistically dependent
Action: Ask yourself “what am I conditioning on?”. Follow up with “Are any of these factors causally downstream of both X and Y?” Alternatively, you could list salient things causally downstream of either X or Y and check the others.
This TAP unfortunately abstract because “things I’m currently conditioning on” isn’t an easy thing to list, but it might help.