It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks. Where “inappropriately” is measured relative to the original evidence that led you to infer those implications. If the evidence is insufficient then discount some of the associated utility. Where “insufficient” is measured intuitively. In conclusion: Act according to your best formal theories but don’t factor out your intuition.
It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks.
So if I’m driving, and someone says “look out for that deer in the road!”, that’s an extraordinary claim because swerving is a large risk? Or did you push the question over into the word “inappropriately”?
It becomes extraordinary at the point where the expected utility of the associated logical implications demands to take actions that might lead to inappropriately high risks. Where “inappropriately” is measured relative to the original evidence that led you to infer those implications. If the evidence is insufficient then discount some of the associated utility. Where “insufficient” is measured intuitively. In conclusion: Act according to your best formal theories but don’t factor out your intuition.
So if I’m driving, and someone says “look out for that deer in the road!”, that’s an extraordinary claim because swerving is a large risk? Or did you push the question over into the word “inappropriately”?