Another approach is to calibrate my estimation of probabilities such that my prior probability for the claim that you have the power to create X units of disutility decreases the greater X is. That is, if I reliably conclude that P(X) ⇐ P(Y)/2 when X is twice the threat of Y, then increasing the mugger’s threat won’t make me more likely to concede to it.
Another approach is to calibrate my estimation of probabilities such that my prior probability for the claim that you have the power to create X units of disutility decreases the greater X is. That is, if I reliably conclude that P(X) ⇐ P(Y)/2 when X is twice the threat of Y, then increasing the mugger’s threat won’t make me more likely to concede to it.