This is not verbatim because I never wrote it down till now, but Eliezer said in March 2005 that an AI’s beating Go champions in Go would be a sign of real progress towards AGI. IMO that counts as a successful prediction because the rate at which the field racked up successes increased significantly around the time of AlphaGo.
(The statement was made in the house of a man named Spike Jones at a party to give the public a chance to meet Eliezer, who’d just moved to the Bay Area.)
It tells us essentially nothing. How are you going to score the degree to which it turned out to be “a sign of real progress towards AGI”? I understand it feels impressive but it’s far too nebulous to work as a forecasting track record.
This is not verbatim because I never wrote it down till now, but Eliezer said in March 2005 that an AI’s beating Go champions in Go would be a sign of real progress towards AGI. IMO that counts as a successful prediction because the rate at which the field racked up successes increased significantly around the time of AlphaGo.
(The statement was made in the house of a man named Spike Jones at a party to give the public a chance to meet Eliezer, who’d just moved to the Bay Area.)
It tells us essentially nothing. How are you going to score the degree to which it turned out to be “a sign of real progress towards AGI”? I understand it feels impressive but it’s far too nebulous to work as a forecasting track record.