Sure. In the case of Lincoln, I would say the problem is solved by models even as clean as Pearl-ian causal networks. But in math, there’s no principled causal network model of theorems to support counterfactual reasoning as causal calculus.
Of course, I more or less just think that we have an unprincipled causality-like view of math that we take when we think about mathematical counterfactuals, but it’s not clear that this is any help to MIRI understanding proof-based AI.
Sure. In the case of Lincoln, I would say the problem is solved by models even as clean as Pearl-ian causal networks. But in math, there’s no principled causal network model of theorems to support counterfactual reasoning as causal calculus.
Of course, I more or less just think that we have an unprincipled causality-like view of math that we take when we think about mathematical counterfactuals, but it’s not clear that this is any help to MIRI understanding proof-based AI.
I don’t think I am following your argument. I am not sure what Pearl’s causal networks are and how they help here, so maybe I need to read up on it.