time span: physical time, economic time, political time, AI time (development speed of front runners over others)
shape of the take-off curve, ex.: exponential, S-curves, linear, etc.
monopolistic effect: do front runners become less likely to be outcompeted as they grow? how many large players will there be? also: how will this change? ex.: it could be that AI doesn’t have strong monopolistic effect until you reach a certain level
measurement to quantify:
AI progress: GDP, decisive strategic advantage
AI progress speed: time until AI having more power than the rest of humanity / time until solving the control problem
trying to put this in my own words to remember it
so different axes for take-off dynamics include:
time span: physical time, economic time, political time, AI time (development speed of front runners over others)
shape of the take-off curve, ex.: exponential, S-curves, linear, etc.
monopolistic effect: do front runners become less likely to be outcompeted as they grow? how many large players will there be? also: how will this change? ex.: it could be that AI doesn’t have strong monopolistic effect until you reach a certain level
measurement to quantify:
AI progress: GDP, decisive strategic advantage
AI progress speed: time until AI having more power than the rest of humanity / time until solving the control problem
related:
impact on forecasting capabilities