The latter option is more of what I was going for.
I’d agree that the armor/epistemics people often aren’t great at coming up with new truths in complicated areas. I’d also agree that they are extremely unbiased and resistant to both poor faith arguments, and good faith, but systematically misleading arguments (these are many of the demons the armor protects against, if that wasn’t clear).
When I said that they were soft-spoken and poor at arguing, I’m assuming that they have great calibration and are likely arguing against people who are very overconfident, so in comparison they seem meager. I think of a lot of superforecasters in this way; they’re quite thoughtful and reasonable, but not often bold enough to sell a lot of books. Other people with too epistemics sometimes recognize their skills (especially when f they have empirical track records like in forecasting systems), but that’s right now a meager minority.
The latter option is more of what I was going for.
I’d agree that the armor/epistemics people often aren’t great at coming up with new truths in complicated areas. I’d also agree that they are extremely unbiased and resistant to both poor faith arguments, and good faith, but systematically misleading arguments (these are many of the demons the armor protects against, if that wasn’t clear).
When I said that they were soft-spoken and poor at arguing, I’m assuming that they have great calibration and are likely arguing against people who are very overconfident, so in comparison they seem meager. I think of a lot of superforecasters in this way; they’re quite thoughtful and reasonable, but not often bold enough to sell a lot of books. Other people with too epistemics sometimes recognize their skills (especially when f they have empirical track records like in forecasting systems), but that’s right now a meager minority.