Just because you use “75%” as a shorthand for “I’m pretty sure” doesn’t mean you are thinking probabilistically; you must train the skill of seeing that for some events, its complement “25%” also counts as “I’m pretty sure”.
Would expressing these things in terms of odds rather than probability make it easier to avoid this error?
Would expressing these things in terms of odds rather than probability make it easier to avoid this error?
Dunno. I have trouble with odds, for some reason, and rarely if ever think in terms of odds.