I note that the most advanced aircraft the United States (officially) has is the F-22. It was designed to take advantage of a few future technologies, like advanced materials and electronics.
It was also designed ~30 years ago. That’s three decades of Moore’s Law, materials science advancements and the proliferation of metamaterials, and so on. So when accounting for the possibility of it being a real craft in the air, I ask myself questions like “what could plausibly fit into that 30 years worth of advancements?”
I also note that one of the areas where we have seen considerable improvement is in compressing the design-build pipeline, which is to say we make prototypes faster than we used to. I therefore expect that the gap between what is possible on paper and what can actually fly is shorter than it was in the 1980s.
This would only follow if the UFOs spotted today were 30 years more advanced than the UFOs spotted 30 years ago. Also, the UFOs spotted 30 years ago should be the equivalent of modern tech-ish.
That’s an interesting point.
Unfortunately, there isn’t enough data to make good performance comparisons to my knowledge. Although I would definitely watch a medium-production-value documentary that does the work with what is available.
I have no idea about the truth of the statement but the person who told me was a rather level headed and very smart person. He mentioned that most of the new cutting edge stuff we see tended to be prototyped about 20 years prior. Fits well with your timing.
If it is true, it should also applied to AI. Should we expect that secret AIs are 20 years ahead of OpenAI? If yes, what about their safety?
Cutting-edge modern military AI seems to all be recently developed; the first flight of the F-22 Raptor was in 1997, while the first deployment of Sea Hunter was in 2016. I also think there are strong incentives for civilian organisations to develop AI that aren’t present for fighter jets.
But if there is antigravty using (nuclear powered?) drone capable to do thing described by the pilots it also probably needs advance forms of AI to be controlled.
Also NSA is the biggest employer of mathematician and is known to be 20-30 years ahead of civilian science in some math areas.
TL;DR: if we assume some form of “supercivilization” inside military complex, it also should include advance AI.