Kessler syndrome isn’t permanent though, and it only affects orbits where there is a high density of satellites. If SpaceX can continue launching they would launch to higher orbits with low debris density, and very low orbits where the high surface area : volume ratio of debris means it reenters fast but the satellite needs to use a bit more fuel.
What they can do is deny LEO due to Kessler syndrome, and deny slightly higher orbits by launching 10^9 tiny ball bearings into retrograde orbit, which will cause several unavoidable collisions per year with any satellite passing through that altitude. I think this forces adversaries to retreat into VLEO which is shielded by drag.
In a full out war, the side with a disadvantage in space would probably try to introduce Kessler syndrome.
Kessler syndrome isn’t permanent though, and it only affects orbits where there is a high density of satellites. If SpaceX can continue launching they would launch to higher orbits with low debris density, and very low orbits where the high surface area : volume ratio of debris means it reenters fast but the satellite needs to use a bit more fuel.
What they can do is deny LEO due to Kessler syndrome, and deny slightly higher orbits by launching 10^9 tiny ball bearings into retrograde orbit, which will cause several unavoidable collisions per year with any satellite passing through that altitude. I think this forces adversaries to retreat into VLEO which is shielded by drag.