All this may be valid, but I would think politics and geopolitics also matter enormously, since they should determine who Europe’s enemies are going to be. It’s no secret that parties like AfD in Germany, the National Rally in France, and Reform in the UK have the potential to change Europe’s direction substantially, and that the US, Europe’s military big brother, is thinking about exiting NATO entirely, perhaps handing control of European forces to a German general as a transitional step. You mention that Pax Americana is ending, but focus solely on military issues. Ideology is changing too.
All this may be valid, but I would think politics and geopolitics also matter enormously, since they should determine who Europe’s enemies are going to be. It’s no secret that parties like AfD in Germany, the National Rally in France, and Reform in the UK have the potential to change Europe’s direction substantially, and that the US, Europe’s military big brother, is thinking about exiting NATO entirely, perhaps handing control of European forces to a German general as a transitional step. You mention that Pax Americana is ending, but focus solely on military issues. Ideology is changing too.