My short answer to this question is the same as Dagon’s: if we’re assuming a negligible probability that the election was close enough for your vote to be decisive, 50% in both cases.
I tried to explain the conflicting intuitions in that other comment. It turned out to be one of those interesting questions that feels less obvious after thinking about it for a couple of minutes than at first glance, but I think I resolved the apparent contradictions pretty clearly in the end.
I wrote a long response to a related comment chain here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PcfHSSAMNFMgdqFyB/can-you-control-the-past?commentId=jRo2cGuXBbkz54E4o
My short answer to this question is the same as Dagon’s: if we’re assuming a negligible probability that the election was close enough for your vote to be decisive, 50% in both cases.
I tried to explain the conflicting intuitions in that other comment. It turned out to be one of those interesting questions that feels less obvious after thinking about it for a couple of minutes than at first glance, but I think I resolved the apparent contradictions pretty clearly in the end.