Lawnmowers are also very loud yet is widely tolerated (more or less). Plus, delivery drones need only to drop off the package and fly away; the noise pollution will only last for a few seconds. I also don’t see why it would necessarily be unpredictable; drones don’t get stuck in traffic. Maybe a dedicated time window each day becomes an industry standard.
But the real trouble I see with delivery drones is: what’s the actual point? What problem is being solved here? Current delivery logistics work very well, I don’t see much value being squeezed out of even faster/more predictable delivery. Looks like another solution in search of a problem to me.
To me, the most important thing isn’t speed or predictability. It’s price. Current delivery methods require a human being. People are expensive. If a delivery drone removes the human being from the equation then that could remove a significant fraction of the price.
Why couldn’t land-based delivery vehicle become autonomous though? That would also cut out the human in the loop.
One reason might be that autonomous flying drone are easier to realize. It is true that air is an easier environment to navigate than ground, but landing and taking off at the destination could involve very diverse and unpredictable situations. You might run into the same long tail problem as self-driving cars, especially since a drone that can lift several kilos has dangerously powerful propellers.
Another problem is that flying vehicles in general are energy inefficient due to having to overcome gravity, and even more so at long distances (tyranny of the rocket equation). Of course you could use drones just for the last mile, but that’s an even smaller pool to squeeze value out of.
In general, delivery drones seem less well-suited for densely populated urban environments where landing spots are hard to come by and you only need a few individual trips to serve an entire apartment building. And that’s where most of the world will be living anyway.
Lawnmowers are also very loud yet is widely tolerated (more or less). Plus, delivery drones need only to drop off the package and fly away; the noise pollution will only last for a few seconds. I also don’t see why it would necessarily be unpredictable; drones don’t get stuck in traffic. Maybe a dedicated time window each day becomes an industry standard.
But the real trouble I see with delivery drones is: what’s the actual point? What problem is being solved here? Current delivery logistics work very well, I don’t see much value being squeezed out of even faster/more predictable delivery. Looks like another solution in search of a problem to me.
To me, the most important thing isn’t speed or predictability. It’s price. Current delivery methods require a human being. People are expensive. If a delivery drone removes the human being from the equation then that could remove a significant fraction of the price.
There are multiple land based delievery methods that don’t require a human: https://www.gearbrain.com/autonomous-food-delivery-robots-2646365636.html
Why couldn’t land-based delivery vehicle become autonomous though? That would also cut out the human in the loop.
One reason might be that autonomous flying drone are easier to realize. It is true that air is an easier environment to navigate than ground, but landing and taking off at the destination could involve very diverse and unpredictable situations. You might run into the same long tail problem as self-driving cars, especially since a drone that can lift several kilos has dangerously powerful propellers.
Another problem is that flying vehicles in general are energy inefficient due to having to overcome gravity, and even more so at long distances (tyranny of the rocket equation). Of course you could use drones just for the last mile, but that’s an even smaller pool to squeeze value out of.
In general, delivery drones seem less well-suited for densely populated urban environments where landing spots are hard to come by and you only need a few individual trips to serve an entire apartment building. And that’s where most of the world will be living anyway.