This post may not have been quite correct Bayesianism (… though I don’t think I see any false statements in its body?), but regardless there are one or more steel versions of it that are important to say, including:
persistent abuse can harm people in ways that make them more volatile, less careful, more likely to say things that are false in some details, etc.; this needs to be corrected for if you want to reach accurate beliefs about what’s happened to someone
arguments are soldiers; if there are legitimate reasons (that people are responding to) to argue against someone or see them as dangerous, this is likely to bleed over to dismissing other things they say more than is justified, especially if there are other motivations to do so
the intelligent social web makes some people both more likely to be abused, and less likely to be believed
whether someone seems “off” depends to some extent on how the social web wants them to be perceived, independent of what they’re doing
seriously I don’t know how to communicate using words just how powerful (I claim) this class of effects is
there are all kinds of reasons that not believing claims about abuse is often just really convenient; this sounds obvious but I don’t see people accounting for it well; this motivation will take advantage of whatever rationalizations it can
This post may not have been quite correct Bayesianism (… though I don’t think I see any false statements in its body?), but regardless there are one or more steel versions of it that are important to say, including:
persistent abuse can harm people in ways that make them more volatile, less careful, more likely to say things that are false in some details, etc.; this needs to be corrected for if you want to reach accurate beliefs about what’s happened to someone
arguments are soldiers; if there are legitimate reasons (that people are responding to) to argue against someone or see them as dangerous, this is likely to bleed over to dismissing other things they say more than is justified, especially if there are other motivations to do so
the intelligent social web makes some people both more likely to be abused, and less likely to be believed
whether someone seems “off” depends to some extent on how the social web wants them to be perceived, independent of what they’re doing
seriously I don’t know how to communicate using words just how powerful (I claim) this class of effects is
there are all kinds of reasons that not believing claims about abuse is often just really convenient; this sounds obvious but I don’t see people accounting for it well; this motivation will take advantage of whatever rationalizations it can