I understand the assumption of vulnerability. But how does one assume that one is an asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic carrier if the chance of that is less than 10% on any given day? By itself it doesn’t seem rational because if you assume you are pre-symptomatic you have to do something about it. Like testing. Testing very often for no reason comprehensible to the outside world.
Until I get symptoms, the highest probability was that I hadn’t gotten COVID yet. On the other hand, even if there was a 1% chance that I was infectious (able to spread COVID to others) on any given day, it’s not high enough to warrant a test, which is uncomfortable, and expensive unless it was positive or I had a confirmed exposure. At the same time, it was high enough that e.g. my neighbours (80+ years old) or the person at the supermarket might get sick from it, and be hospitalized, not to mention the secondary effects, so I made sure to breathe slowly around people, and wear masks and keep my distance. Most of my communication ended up being gestures (and even then it was mostly “thank you!”) instead of words.
In other words, 99% chance that I’m vulnerable, take precautions to avoid getting infected if I’m not infected already. 1% risk of preventably murdering someone else, take precautions to avoid that consequence just in case I am infected already.
You severely overestimate your chance of actually murdering someone. Lets go through the numbers. Lets be generous and assume a 10% chance that you are an asymptomatic carrier. If you are, you have no more than 50% chance of infecting someone even if you don’t wear a mask, so lets say with mask properly worn that is reduced to 30%. Now you are already down to 3% chance of infecting any person you encounter. Now, for you 80+ year old neighbor the chance of actually dying from infection is around 5%. So multiply your 3% chance of infecting the neighbor by 5% chance of death and you get 0.15% chance of murdering a person of advanced age. You’d need to encounter 7 of them to get to 1% chance of murder.
Ignoring the fact this is then contagious from the people you infect (regardless of age) and also the number of people encountered doesn’t seem like the most helpful napkin numbers for strategy against a contagious illness.
I really appreciate this comment. I just want that good cautious people quit thinking themselves already guilty of manslaughter let alone murder. Just continue to be good cautious people.
Infecting a reckless superspreader who will give it to everyone he meets did not occur to me.
Paraphrasing a famous writer, the evil may triumph but not through me.
Which is still a huge probability. That being said, the precautions to prevent murdering others are exactly the same precautions that would reduce my probability of getting sick in the first place.
I understand the assumption of vulnerability. But how does one assume that one is an asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic carrier if the chance of that is less than 10% on any given day? By itself it doesn’t seem rational because if you assume you are pre-symptomatic you have to do something about it. Like testing. Testing very often for no reason comprehensible to the outside world.
Until I get symptoms, the highest probability was that I hadn’t gotten COVID yet. On the other hand, even if there was a 1% chance that I was infectious (able to spread COVID to others) on any given day, it’s not high enough to warrant a test, which is uncomfortable, and expensive unless it was positive or I had a confirmed exposure. At the same time, it was high enough that e.g. my neighbours (80+ years old) or the person at the supermarket might get sick from it, and be hospitalized, not to mention the secondary effects, so I made sure to breathe slowly around people, and wear masks and keep my distance. Most of my communication ended up being gestures (and even then it was mostly “thank you!”) instead of words.
In other words, 99% chance that I’m vulnerable, take precautions to avoid getting infected if I’m not infected already. 1% risk of preventably murdering someone else, take precautions to avoid that consequence just in case I am infected already.
You severely overestimate your chance of actually murdering someone. Lets go through the numbers. Lets be generous and assume a 10% chance that you are an asymptomatic carrier. If you are, you have no more than 50% chance of infecting someone even if you don’t wear a mask, so lets say with mask properly worn that is reduced to 30%. Now you are already down to 3% chance of infecting any person you encounter. Now, for you 80+ year old neighbor the chance of actually dying from infection is around 5%. So multiply your 3% chance of infecting the neighbor by 5% chance of death and you get 0.15% chance of murdering a person of advanced age. You’d need to encounter 7 of them to get to 1% chance of murder.
Ignoring the fact this is then contagious from the people you infect (regardless of age) and also the number of people encountered doesn’t seem like the most helpful napkin numbers for strategy against a contagious illness.
I really appreciate this comment. I just want that good cautious people quit thinking themselves already guilty of manslaughter let alone murder. Just continue to be good cautious people.
Infecting a reckless superspreader who will give it to everyone he meets did not occur to me.
Paraphrasing a famous writer, the evil may triumph but not through me.
Which is still a huge probability. That being said, the precautions to prevent murdering others are exactly the same precautions that would reduce my probability of getting sick in the first place.