How long would you expect to be able to enjoy your newfound fortune in Google stock before death? I could maybe see an AGI starting to disassemble the planet before the stock even has a chance to rise all that much...
In the modal future, no time at all, we probably all die at the same time before any economic effects are felt. That was partly a joke, and partly said to maximize value in those futures where we do get some time of economic growth before catastrophe.
Curious: Do you have a considered model of the regulatory bottleneck on short-term AGI inputs into the economy?
I mention in a footnote above that Eliezer thinks that, in the worlds where we could make lots of money from Google stock shortly before doomsday, the developed countries would already have implemented something like open borders in order to pick up those trillion dollar bills from labor mobility. If we can’t take human-level natural-general-intelligence inputs into our economy, we can’t take subhuman-level AGI economic inputs either, Eliezer argues.
But I’m trying not to defer, and I don’t know what I object-level-think … that argument seems pretty solid I guess.
I don’t expect google’s stock price to rise because AGI will actually impact the economy in meaningful ways in the short-term, I just think that demonstrating AGI will really make investors finally understand the eventual impact, and the stock will go crazy, just like Tesla’s, even if their actual fundamental metrics aren’t that impressive. Economies as a whole might not be competent enough to take AGI inputs, but specific companies certainly are, and I don’t doubt that Google will be trying to solve every problem they can find with AGI, just like Deepmind is now trying to do for medicine. You can bet on the spread between google and the SP500 to take advantage of the inefficiency of the economy as a whole in integrating AGI.
How long would you expect to be able to enjoy your newfound fortune in Google stock before death? I could maybe see an AGI starting to disassemble the planet before the stock even has a chance to rise all that much...
In the modal future, no time at all, we probably all die at the same time before any economic effects are felt. That was partly a joke, and partly said to maximize value in those futures where we do get some time of economic growth before catastrophe.
Curious: Do you have a considered model of the regulatory bottleneck on short-term AGI inputs into the economy?
I mention in a footnote above that Eliezer thinks that, in the worlds where we could make lots of money from Google stock shortly before doomsday, the developed countries would already have implemented something like open borders in order to pick up those trillion dollar bills from labor mobility. If we can’t take human-level natural-general-intelligence inputs into our economy, we can’t take subhuman-level AGI economic inputs either, Eliezer argues.
But I’m trying not to defer, and I don’t know what I object-level-think … that argument seems pretty solid I guess.
I don’t expect google’s stock price to rise because AGI will actually impact the economy in meaningful ways in the short-term, I just think that demonstrating AGI will really make investors finally understand the eventual impact, and the stock will go crazy, just like Tesla’s, even if their actual fundamental metrics aren’t that impressive. Economies as a whole might not be competent enough to take AGI inputs, but specific companies certainly are, and I don’t doubt that Google will be trying to solve every problem they can find with AGI, just like Deepmind is now trying to do for medicine. You can bet on the spread between google and the SP500 to take advantage of the inefficiency of the economy as a whole in integrating AGI.