Calibration using search: anytime I am searching for something with a quantitative answer I have the chance to do a fermi estimate/reference class forecasting and getting feedback on how I did.
Same as posts on fermi estimates. I just make a guess to whatever level of effort seems appropriate for the query (often pretty casual, but will take a bit more time if it’s about something I feel is important or especially uncertain about). Then when I am getting the piece of info I can reflect on reasons I might have been off. This often helps structure my inquiry into the piece of info also as I map out model differences that are why it surprised me.
Do you have an explicit process for this?
Same as posts on fermi estimates. I just make a guess to whatever level of effort seems appropriate for the query (often pretty casual, but will take a bit more time if it’s about something I feel is important or especially uncertain about). Then when I am getting the piece of info I can reflect on reasons I might have been off. This often helps structure my inquiry into the piece of info also as I map out model differences that are why it surprised me.
Do you write the guess down somewhere or just keep it in your head?
Written down if I need to multiply a few values to get a ballpark. In head if it’s just a direct guess.