In order to reach a level of entertainment as near as possible to the one provided by poker tournaments you should consider building a prediction game having at least two characteristics:
1) Restricted to low-stakes events (consequences of the outcomes are minimal and affect only a small set of parties; ideally within an artificial environment rather than real world events).
2) The timeframe should be reduced to a single day.
In that type of scenario, I think it is hard to avoid a situation where domain knowledge dominates rational handling of evidence. It might be better, I don’t know. Could you describe in more detail what kind of game you’re imagining?
I’m slightly biased against it because this seems even more like gambling. Specifically, like sports betting. And as soon as you involve prizes, it’ll be hard to avoid being subject to gambling legislation.
In order to reach a level of entertainment as near as possible to the one provided by poker tournaments you should consider building a prediction game having at least two characteristics:
1) Restricted to low-stakes events (consequences of the outcomes are minimal and affect only a small set of parties; ideally within an artificial environment rather than real world events).
2) The timeframe should be reduced to a single day.
In that type of scenario, I think it is hard to avoid a situation where domain knowledge dominates rational handling of evidence. It might be better, I don’t know. Could you describe in more detail what kind of game you’re imagining?
I’m slightly biased against it because this seems even more like gambling. Specifically, like sports betting. And as soon as you involve prizes, it’ll be hard to avoid being subject to gambling legislation.
Before releasing the results of the LW survey, we might have a tournament about predicting the outcome of many survey questions.