If I thought about it more, it might shorten them idk. But my idea was: I’m worried that the GPTs are on a path towards human-level AGI. I’m worried that predicting internet text is an “HLAGI-complete problem” in the sense that in order to do it as well as a human you have to be a human or a human-level AGI. This is worrying because if the scaling trends continue GPT-4 or 5 or 6 will probably be able to do it as well as a human, and thus be HLAGI.
If GPT-3 is already superhuman, well, that pretty much falsifies the hypothesis that predicting internet text is HLAGI-complete. It makes it more likely that actually the GPTs are not fully general after all, and that even GPT-6 and GPT-7 will have massive blind spots, be super incompetent at various important things, etc.
Agreed. Superhuman levels will unlikely be achieved simultaneously in different domain even for universal system. For example, some model could be universal and superhuman in math, but not superhuman in say emotion readings. Bad for alignment.
If I thought about it more, it might shorten them idk. But my idea was: I’m worried that the GPTs are on a path towards human-level AGI. I’m worried that predicting internet text is an “HLAGI-complete problem” in the sense that in order to do it as well as a human you have to be a human or a human-level AGI. This is worrying because if the scaling trends continue GPT-4 or 5 or 6 will probably be able to do it as well as a human, and thus be HLAGI.
If GPT-3 is already superhuman, well, that pretty much falsifies the hypothesis that predicting internet text is HLAGI-complete. It makes it more likely that actually the GPTs are not fully general after all, and that even GPT-6 and GPT-7 will have massive blind spots, be super incompetent at various important things, etc.
Agreed. Superhuman levels will unlikely be achieved simultaneously in different domain even for universal system. For example, some model could be universal and superhuman in math, but not superhuman in say emotion readings. Bad for alignment.