We see 46 99%-damaged ships that were attacked: 31 by demon whales, 6 by Nessie, 1 by crabmonsters, 8 by merpeople.
We see 44 98%-damaged ships that were attacked: 22 by demon whales, 6 by Nessie, 6 by crabmonsters, 10 by merpeople.
These look fairly similar, and suggest that those are the threats that are likely to be most dangerous (until of course some more serious threat is reliably unsurvivable so we don’t find out about it, or some threat deals non-linear damage...but let’s ignore that for now. I was assured in Linear Algebra class that the real world never works like that.)
Given this:
Oars, Cannons and Armed Carpenters (in descending order) counter the most common threats.
Tribute to the merpeople reduces the chance that they attack, though it increases the chance that something else does.
Rifles and Foam Cutlasses counter attacks that don’t seem to be serious enough to matter anyway.
Shark repellent is actively harmful, since it prevents sharks from attacking (no shark attack has ever done more than 9% damage (EDIT: wrong, I sorted these as strings because I am a dullard, but they still never seem to do near-lethal damage), which makes sense because...well...how are sharks going to get into your boat?) and makes something more dangerous attack instead.
Adding up Armed Carpenters (20) + Tribute to Merpeople (45) + 20 Oars (20) + 3 Cannons (30) makes 115gp, which we can’t quite afford. My best guesses:
If trying purely to survive, buy Tribute to Merpeople + 20 Oars + 3 Cannons for 95gp.
If trying to survive while also impressing the Admiralty with your budget-consciousness (and your refusal to pay Danegeld to those damned merfolk!), buy Armed Carpenters + 20 Oars + 3 Cannons for 70gp.
Spoilered:
Looking at the 99% and 98% damaged ships:
We see 46 99%-damaged ships that were attacked: 31 by demon whales, 6 by Nessie, 1 by crabmonsters, 8 by merpeople.
We see 44 98%-damaged ships that were attacked: 22 by demon whales, 6 by Nessie, 6 by crabmonsters, 10 by merpeople.
These look fairly similar, and suggest that those are the threats that are likely to be most dangerous (until of course some more serious threat is reliably unsurvivable so we don’t find out about it, or some threat deals non-linear damage...but let’s ignore that for now. I was assured in Linear Algebra class that the real world never works like that.)
Given this:
Oars, Cannons and Armed Carpenters (in descending order) counter the most common threats.
Tribute to the merpeople reduces the chance that they attack, though it increases the chance that something else does.
Rifles and Foam Cutlasses counter attacks that don’t seem to be serious enough to matter anyway.
Shark repellent is actively harmful, since it prevents sharks from attacking (no shark attack has ever done more than 9% damage (EDIT: wrong, I sorted these as strings because I am a dullard, but they still never seem to do near-lethal damage), which makes sense because...well...how are sharks going to get into your boat?) and makes something more dangerous attack instead.
Adding up Armed Carpenters (20) + Tribute to Merpeople (45) + 20 Oars (20) + 3 Cannons (30) makes 115gp, which we can’t quite afford. My best guesses:
If trying purely to survive, buy Tribute to Merpeople + 20 Oars + 3 Cannons for 95gp.
If trying to survive while also impressing the Admiralty with your budget-consciousness (and your refusal to pay Danegeld to those damned merfolk!), buy Armed Carpenters + 20 Oars + 3 Cannons for 70gp.