After reading gjm’s point about unexplained excess sinkings, I’m less confident in my choices. I had briefly looked at them at the beginning of my analysis and concluded that most of the unknowns were Demon Whales, but Super-Water-Elementals seem like a real possibility as well considering their unusual damage distribution (and thematically that makes more sense than Super-Harpies). If I could have a do-over, I’d give up arming the carpenters to get the foam swords and a second cannon.
As long as we’re considering things thematically, Pirates could probably board and commandeer a vessel without doing enough damage to risk sinking it, and they’re the most common encounter, so maybe some of the excess unknowns are successful Pirate attacks?
Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
After reading gjm’s point about unexplained excess sinkings, I’m less confident in my choices. I had briefly looked at them at the beginning of my analysis and concluded that most of the unknowns were Demon Whales, but Super-Water-Elementals seem like a real possibility as well considering their unusual damage distribution (and thematically that makes more sense than Super-Harpies). If I could have a do-over, I’d give up arming the carpenters to get the foam swords and a second cannon.
As long as we’re considering things thematically, Pirates could probably board and commandeer a vessel without doing enough damage to risk sinking it, and they’re the most common encounter, so maybe some of the excess unknowns are successful Pirate attacks?
I love your novel theory at the end there. Full marks.
Evidence against that theory is that
pirate attacks have changed somewhat in frequency, but ship-sinkings don’t seem to have.
Possible counter-evidence:
Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
Still all totally speculative of course.
Nice idea.
Agreed. :(