Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
Possible counter-evidence:
Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
Still all totally speculative of course.
Nice idea.