I didn’t notice any variation over years or months except that in the last five years Pirate attacks were less common and did slightly less damage. Considering we’re making voyages in both directions over ten consecutive months, such variation shouldn’t change the analysis much anyway. The most important factors are the distribution of possible damage amounts for each type of encounter and the relative frequency of each type.
Encounters:
Crabmonsters have a wide variation in damage with a long tail into the lethal range.
Harpies consistently do minimal damage.
Krakens do moderate damage with moderate variation but never lethal.
Merfolk do moderate damage with a wide variation into the lethal range.
Nessie does high damage with moderate variation into the lethal range.
Pirates do low-to-moderate damage but never lethal.
Sharks do low-to-moderate damage but never lethal.
Water Elementals do consistently high damage in a tight spread from 70-90. Never lethal.
We can ignore everything except Demon Whales, Crabmonsters, Merfolk, and Nessie since those are the only lethal threats.
Interventions:
Shark Repellent—Worse than useless since it increases the chance of a lethal encounter of another type.
Armed Carpenters—Good since it’s cheap and should effectively reduce the lethality of Crabmonsters.
Merfolk Tribute—Possibly worthwhile even though it’s expensive.
Additional Oars—Over half of all lethal encounters are Demon Whales, so as many oars as we can get.
Additional Cannons—We don’t care about Pirates, but Nessie has a moderate chance of lethal damage and is one of the more common lethal encounters, so reducing that is worthwhile. Given the apparent damage distribution for Nessie, two is somewhat better than one and three might be slightly better than two.
Rifles—Useless since Harpies aren’t lethal.
Foam Swords—Water Elementals aren’t lethal, but if we have leftover budget we can considerably reduce repair costs.
Allocations:
Spend 20gp to arm the carpenters.
Spend 45gp for Tribute to the Merfolk.
Spend 20gp for +20 additional oars.
Spend 10gp for +1 additional cannon.
There was a choice at the end between [Merfolk tribute + 1 Cannon] or [Foam swords + 3 cannons]. I’m eyeballing that without intervention Merfolk and Nessie have about equal share of lethal encounters and 1 Cannon should significantly reduce lethal Nessie encounters. Eliminating Merfolk encounters does slightly raise the chance of encountering a Demon Whale, but overall I think it’s still an improvement.
After reading gjm’s point about unexplained excess sinkings, I’m less confident in my choices. I had briefly looked at them at the beginning of my analysis and concluded that most of the unknowns were Demon Whales, but Super-Water-Elementals seem like a real possibility as well considering their unusual damage distribution (and thematically that makes more sense than Super-Harpies). If I could have a do-over, I’d give up arming the carpenters to get the foam swords and a second cannon.
As long as we’re considering things thematically, Pirates could probably board and commandeer a vessel without doing enough damage to risk sinking it, and they’re the most common encounter, so maybe some of the excess unknowns are successful Pirate attacks?
Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
General:
I didn’t notice any variation over years or months except that in the last five years Pirate attacks were less common and did slightly less damage. Considering we’re making voyages in both directions over ten consecutive months, such variation shouldn’t change the analysis much anyway. The most important factors are the distribution of possible damage amounts for each type of encounter and the relative frequency of each type.
Encounters:
Crabmonsters have a wide variation in damage with a long tail into the lethal range.
Harpies consistently do minimal damage.
Krakens do moderate damage with moderate variation but never lethal.
Merfolk do moderate damage with a wide variation into the lethal range.
Nessie does high damage with moderate variation into the lethal range.
Pirates do low-to-moderate damage but never lethal.
Sharks do low-to-moderate damage but never lethal.
Water Elementals do consistently high damage in a tight spread from 70-90. Never lethal.
We can ignore everything except Demon Whales, Crabmonsters, Merfolk, and Nessie since those are the only lethal threats.
Interventions:
Shark Repellent—Worse than useless since it increases the chance of a lethal encounter of another type.
Armed Carpenters—Good since it’s cheap and should effectively reduce the lethality of Crabmonsters.
Merfolk Tribute—Possibly worthwhile even though it’s expensive.
Additional Oars—Over half of all lethal encounters are Demon Whales, so as many oars as we can get.
Additional Cannons—We don’t care about Pirates, but Nessie has a moderate chance of lethal damage and is one of the more common lethal encounters, so reducing that is worthwhile. Given the apparent damage distribution for Nessie, two is somewhat better than one and three might be slightly better than two.
Rifles—Useless since Harpies aren’t lethal.
Foam Swords—Water Elementals aren’t lethal, but if we have leftover budget we can considerably reduce repair costs.
Allocations:
Spend 20gp to arm the carpenters.
Spend 45gp for Tribute to the Merfolk.
Spend 20gp for +20 additional oars.
Spend 10gp for +1 additional cannon.
There was a choice at the end between [Merfolk tribute + 1 Cannon] or [Foam swords + 3 cannons]. I’m eyeballing that without intervention Merfolk and Nessie have about equal share of lethal encounters and 1 Cannon should significantly reduce lethal Nessie encounters. Eliminating Merfolk encounters does slightly raise the chance of encountering a Demon Whale, but overall I think it’s still an improvement.
After reading gjm’s point about unexplained excess sinkings, I’m less confident in my choices. I had briefly looked at them at the beginning of my analysis and concluded that most of the unknowns were Demon Whales, but Super-Water-Elementals seem like a real possibility as well considering their unusual damage distribution (and thematically that makes more sense than Super-Harpies). If I could have a do-over, I’d give up arming the carpenters to get the foam swords and a second cannon.
As long as we’re considering things thematically, Pirates could probably board and commandeer a vessel without doing enough damage to risk sinking it, and they’re the most common encounter, so maybe some of the excess unknowns are successful Pirate attacks?
I love your novel theory at the end there. Full marks.
Evidence against that theory is that
pirate attacks have changed somewhat in frequency, but ship-sinkings don’t seem to have.
Possible counter-evidence:
Pirates have a bimodal distribution (around 20% and 40% damage) and only the 40% part of the distribution seems to have declined. So, this looks like two different populations and theoretically, the 20% pirates could be the strong, smart pirates who win a lot and back off early if they won’t get an easy win, while the 40% pirates could be weak, stupid pirates who go all out every time.
Still all totally speculative of course.
Nice idea.
Agreed. :(