I don’t understand how the second wave can’t be explained by increase in testing. Before only people who were sick were allowed to be tested, who correlate more with hospital visits, which correlates more with deaths, so it more closely follows the death graph.
Now anyone can be tested and it’s estimated that 40 to 80 percent of people are asymptomatic who will never even see a doctor.
Hence the infection rate skyrockets and the death rate remains the same.
So I don’t follow the reasoning.
Additionally there’s the possibility that death rates were inflated before by doctors labeling any death that test positive for covid, even if a car accident, a covid death. From a cynic’s perspective there is also more financial renumeration from insurance the medicare for a corona labeled patient.
I don’t understand how the second wave can’t be explained by increase in testing. Before only people who were sick were allowed to be tested, who correlate more with hospital visits, which correlates more with deaths, so it more closely follows the death graph.
It used to be the case that 4.4% of people you tested had COVID-19.
Now you test more people, who look less risky on average, and find that 7.4% of people you test have COVID-19. The people you would have tested in the old days are the riskiest subgroup, so more than 7.4% of them have COVID-19.
So it sure seems like the infection rate went up by at least (7.4/4.4) = +70%.
I don’t understand how the second wave can’t be explained by increase in testing. Before only people who were sick were allowed to be tested, who correlate more with hospital visits, which correlates more with deaths, so it more closely follows the death graph.
Now anyone can be tested and it’s estimated that 40 to 80 percent of people are asymptomatic who will never even see a doctor.
Hence the infection rate skyrockets and the death rate remains the same.
So I don’t follow the reasoning.
Additionally there’s the possibility that death rates were inflated before by doctors labeling any death that test positive for covid, even if a car accident, a covid death. From a cynic’s perspective there is also more financial renumeration from insurance the medicare for a corona labeled patient.
US positive test rate is up from 4.4% to 7.4%: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/individual-states
It used to be the case that 4.4% of people you tested had COVID-19.
Now you test more people, who look less risky on average, and find that 7.4% of people you test have COVID-19. The people you would have tested in the old days are the riskiest subgroup, so more than 7.4% of them have COVID-19.
So it sure seems like the infection rate went up by at least (7.4/4.4) = +70%.