Eliezer or Robin: Can you cite evidence for “we can more persuasively argue, for what we honestly believe”. My impression is that it has been widely assumed in evolutionary psychology and fairly soundly refuted in the general psychology of deception, which tells us that the large majority of people detect lies at about chance and that similar effort seems to enable the development of the fairly rare skill of the detection of lies and evasion of such detection.
Carl: Unknown and Utilitarian could be distinct but highly correlated (we’re both here after all). In principle we could see them as both unpacking the implications of some fairly simple algorithm.
Have you noticed them both making the same set of mistakes in their efforts to understand Bayesian reasoning, anthropics, decision theory, etc? Still could be the same program running on different sets of wetware.
Great comments thread! Thanks all!
Seconding Roko, Carl, HA, Nick T, etc.
Eliezer or Robin: Can you cite evidence for “we can more persuasively argue, for what we honestly believe”. My impression is that it has been widely assumed in evolutionary psychology and fairly soundly refuted in the general psychology of deception, which tells us that the large majority of people detect lies at about chance and that similar effort seems to enable the development of the fairly rare skill of the detection of lies and evasion of such detection.
Carl: Unknown and Utilitarian could be distinct but highly correlated (we’re both here after all). In principle we could see them as both unpacking the implications of some fairly simple algorithm. Have you noticed them both making the same set of mistakes in their efforts to understand Bayesian reasoning, anthropics, decision theory, etc? Still could be the same program running on different sets of wetware.