I did not interpret paragraph 3 to contain any information about prior payouts… For instance, if one were to 1-box (successfully!) in every case that did not have such a lottery hedge, it would appear consistent with the problem statement to me.
You previously played the game with Omega and the Numerical Lottery a few thousand times before.
it tells you that there were prior payouts.
Ah, well, it tells us that there were prior games.
If I didn’t get prior payouts from those games, the updates on that is way bigger than any other reasoning such as what we’re doing on this thread.
I did not interpret paragraph 3 to contain any information about prior payouts… For instance, if one were to 1-box (successfully!) in every case that did not have such a lottery hedge, it would appear consistent with the problem statement to me.
it tells you that there were prior payouts.
Ah, well, it tells us that there were prior games.
If I didn’t get prior payouts from those games, the updates on that is way bigger than any other reasoning such as what we’re doing on this thread.