That’s a very good point. What do you think about predicting events on which I might still have an impact? Those are some of the most important forecasts for me: I will decide whether to attempt something based on my predicted probability of success. But then my forecast might affect that probability which makes the whole thing much more complicated.
Agree! Tricky territory. I think it’s fair to take an outside view as a first cut (e.g. how many people survived Everest), then very carefully evaluate if the reference class is relevant. Yudkowsky writes about this quite a bit in places cannot recall which particular place.
Thanks. I will be on the lookout for relevant writings. I’m slowly going through Yudkowsky’s books/posts, so I’m sure I will stumble on it sooner or later.
That’s a very good point. What do you think about predicting events on which I might still have an impact? Those are some of the most important forecasts for me: I will decide whether to attempt something based on my predicted probability of success. But then my forecast might affect that probability which makes the whole thing much more complicated.
Agree! Tricky territory. I think it’s fair to take an outside view as a first cut (e.g. how many people survived Everest), then very carefully evaluate if the reference class is relevant. Yudkowsky writes about this quite a bit in places cannot recall which particular place.
Thanks. I will be on the lookout for relevant writings. I’m slowly going through Yudkowsky’s books/posts, so I’m sure I will stumble on it sooner or later.