“If I am incorrect, and that is how any of this works I have some very, very large bets I would like to place.”
Maybe you can state what bets you’d like to make? Are you predicting that the number of cases or deaths in, say, NYC will look very different from consensus estimates?
An update by the OP on what bets they are willing to make would be much appreciated.
Zvi commenting on his The One Mistake Rule post: “E.g. if you want to bet me that there will be no American Covid-19 deaths in July, I will be very, very surprised.”
Yes, the model isn’t properly sensitive to uncertainties—but the projection that they are near zero isn’t unreasonable, if transmission is stopped.