Another illustration: if you’re currently falling from a 90-story building, most of the expected utility is in worlds where there coincidentally happens to be a net to safely catch you before you hit the ground, or interventionist simulators decide to rescue you—even if virtually all of the probability is in worlds where you go splat and die. The decision theory looks right, but this is a lot less comforting than the interview made it sound.
Another illustration: if you’re currently falling from a 90-story building, most of the expected utility is in worlds where there coincidentally happens to be a net to safely catch you before you hit the ground, or interventionist simulators decide to rescue you—even if virtually all of the probability is in worlds where you go splat and die. The decision theory looks right, but this is a lot less comforting than the interview made it sound.