Thanks, that was an illuminating answer. I feel like those three worlds are decently likely, but that if those worlds occur purchasing additional expected utility in them will be hard, precisely because things will be so much easier. For example, if safety concerns are part of mainstream AI research, then safety research won’t be neglected anymore.
You can purchase additional EU by pumping up their probability as well EDIT: I know I originally said to condition on these worlds, but I guess that’s not what I actually do. Instead, I think I condition on not-doomed worlds
Ah, that sounds much better to me. Yeah, maybe the cheapest EU lies in trying to make these worlds more likely. I doubt we have much control over which paradigms overtake ML, and I think that the intervention I’m proposing might help make the first and second kinds of world more likely (because maybe with a month of extra time to analyze their system, the relevant people will become convinced that the problem is real)
Thanks, that was an illuminating answer. I feel like those three worlds are decently likely, but that if those worlds occur purchasing additional expected utility in them will be hard, precisely because things will be so much easier. For example, if safety concerns are part of mainstream AI research, then safety research won’t be neglected anymore.
You can purchase additional EU by pumping up their probability as well EDIT: I know I originally said to condition on these worlds, but I guess that’s not what I actually do. Instead, I think I condition on not-doomed worlds
Ah, that sounds much better to me. Yeah, maybe the cheapest EU lies in trying to make these worlds more likely. I doubt we have much control over which paradigms overtake ML, and I think that the intervention I’m proposing might help make the first and second kinds of world more likely (because maybe with a month of extra time to analyze their system, the relevant people will become convinced that the problem is real)