I believe this is not a conjunction fallacy, but for a different reason. In the first case, the test subject is required to conceive of a reason that might lead to a complete suspension of relations. There are many different choices, invasion, provocation, oil embargo of Europe, etc. Each of these seems remote, that the test subject might not even contemplate them. In the second case, the test is given a more specific, therefore more conceivable sequence of events.
A good third scenario, to control for this, would have been to ask another group of subjects the probabilities independently: A. That USSR invades Poland
B. That US suspends relations
This provide the same trigger of a plausible provocation, but doesn’t directly link them. Variances between the estimates of B in this case v. 1 in the original test would indicate confidence interval between variances between 1 and 2.
I believe this is not a conjunction fallacy, but for a different reason. In the first case, the test subject is required to conceive of a reason that might lead to a complete suspension of relations. There are many different choices, invasion, provocation, oil embargo of Europe, etc. Each of these seems remote, that the test subject might not even contemplate them. In the second case, the test is given a more specific, therefore more conceivable sequence of events.
A good third scenario, to control for this, would have been to ask another group of subjects the probabilities independently:
A. That USSR invades Poland B. That US suspends relations
This provide the same trigger of a plausible provocation, but doesn’t directly link them. Variances between the estimates of B in this case v. 1 in the original test would indicate confidence interval between variances between 1 and 2.