I think I’ve come round to Gwern’s point of view—this is a bit too vague. The news item I posted makes me feel like we’re still on track for it to happen, though I could be a few years off the mark. I might knock it down to 65% or so to account for uncertainty in timing.
Any updates to your original prediction?
Now this.
I think I’ve come round to Gwern’s point of view—this is a bit too vague. The news item I posted makes me feel like we’re still on track for it to happen, though I could be a few years off the mark. I might knock it down to 65% or so to account for uncertainty in timing.