The Default Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) Is 0.5%-1%
Why do you believe that? We can only measure IFR in the worst outbreaks, such as NYC and Lombardy, where it was 1-2%. Maybe hospitals that aren’t overrun have half the morality rate, but how do you know?
America in general could be as high as 1.2% IFR without making the data stop making sense.
What about the data wouldn’t make sense if the IFR were 2% in America ex NYC? Outside of a massive outbreak, we can measure neither deaths nor infections. Sure, if you assume that only 33% of deaths are missed, then we can measure deaths. But why assume that? Isn’t that only true in NYC because there was pressure to record untested pneumonia deaths? Elsewhere there is less attention and less pressure.
Why do you believe that? We can only measure IFR in the worst outbreaks, such as NYC and Lombardy, where it was 1-2%. Maybe hospitals that aren’t overrun have half the morality rate, but how do you know?
What about the data wouldn’t make sense if the IFR were 2% in America ex NYC? Outside of a massive outbreak, we can measure neither deaths nor infections. Sure, if you assume that only 33% of deaths are missed, then we can measure deaths. But why assume that? Isn’t that only true in NYC because there was pressure to record untested pneumonia deaths? Elsewhere there is less attention and less pressure.