Nice post! Utilitarianism definitely has its points. The trick of course is assigning values to such things as hiccups and shark attacks...
Assuming this is a one-off again;
If I care about an individual in the group of 500, say myself or my wife or whatever, I’d want you to pick 2 in either case. Option 1 gives the individual a 20% chance to die (1/5 they’ll die), option 2 gives the individual a 10% chance to die (if everyone dies).
This is a bit more complicated than the simple math suggests though—a lot of factors come into play. Let me tweak it slightly; you’re in a space colony of 500 and you have to decide on what to do about a problem. You have two choices on how to handle it, same odds. Choice 1: 100 colonists die. Choice 2: 90% odds everyone is saved but 10% the colony is wiped out.
From the perspective of someone interested in maintaining the longevity of the colony, shouldn’t I take choice 1 in either case? Yes, it is the choice with 50 less expected value of lives saved but the 10% odds of total destruction path that is possible down choice 2 is an *unacceptable* fail-state. The colony can recover from 20% population hit but not if it is entirely destroyed.
Or to put it even more simply: would you sacrifice 20% of the human population to remove a definite 10% chance of total extinction of the species?
Nice post! Utilitarianism definitely has its points. The trick of course is assigning values to such things as hiccups and shark attacks...
Assuming this is a one-off again;
If I care about an individual in the group of 500, say myself or my wife or whatever, I’d want you to pick 2 in either case. Option 1 gives the individual a 20% chance to die (1/5 they’ll die), option 2 gives the individual a 10% chance to die (if everyone dies).
This is a bit more complicated than the simple math suggests though—a lot of factors come into play. Let me tweak it slightly; you’re in a space colony of 500 and you have to decide on what to do about a problem. You have two choices on how to handle it, same odds. Choice 1: 100 colonists die. Choice 2: 90% odds everyone is saved but 10% the colony is wiped out.
From the perspective of someone interested in maintaining the longevity of the colony, shouldn’t I take choice 1 in either case? Yes, it is the choice with 50 less expected value of lives saved but the 10% odds of total destruction path that is possible down choice 2 is an *unacceptable* fail-state. The colony can recover from 20% population hit but not if it is entirely destroyed.
Or to put it even more simply: would you sacrifice 20% of the human population to remove a definite 10% chance of total extinction of the species?