I like the idea of the having a fixed betting pool, as a way to give betting more stakes while accounting for “man, I’m not sure I’m actually good enough at this rationality thing to go around kelly betting my savings.”
I’m not sure this is the right next-step-in-the-dance for me, but it feels like it’s maybe pointing in a useful direction, and I’m curious what the right-next-step-in-the-dance-for-me is.
One problem is I’m neither fluent enough in probability and betting, generally, to feel like I wouldn’t be screwing up in basic ways. (Forget Kelly Betting – I still struggle a bit with basic betting market terminology to feel comfortable having a conversation about it. I also haven’t yet gotten to a point where I feel well calibrated in the first place on my probabilities.)
I could get better at that. But, also...
...I just don’t find myself having interesting enough beliefs that a) I’m confident in and b) other people are confident in-other-directions in.
...I just don’t find myself having interesting enough beliefs that a) I’m confident in and b) other people are confident in-other-directions in.
I could be wrong, but this sounds similar to the way nobody seems to have any disagreements when CFAR tries to get them to practice Double Crux, but then it’s lunch time and people get into all kinds of arguments while eating.
Surely you have opinions about, EG, the design of LW, which come up during LW meetings? Some of these can be turned into bets about user behavior or such.
I myself don’t bet much, but every so often there will be a big discussion at MIRI about some mathematical question or some silly Fermi-estimation example, and people will place bets. People might hypothetically place (fractional?) Kelly bets in these situations. Maybe I’ll try it.
LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.
I like the idea of the having a fixed betting pool, as a way to give betting more stakes while accounting for “man, I’m not sure I’m actually good enough at this rationality thing to go around kelly betting my savings.”
I’m not sure this is the right next-step-in-the-dance for me, but it feels like it’s maybe pointing in a useful direction, and I’m curious what the right-next-step-in-the-dance-for-me is.
One problem is I’m neither fluent enough in probability and betting, generally, to feel like I wouldn’t be screwing up in basic ways. (Forget Kelly Betting – I still struggle a bit with basic betting market terminology to feel comfortable having a conversation about it. I also haven’t yet gotten to a point where I feel well calibrated in the first place on my probabilities.)
I could get better at that. But, also...
...I just don’t find myself having interesting enough beliefs that a) I’m confident in and b) other people are confident in-other-directions in.
I could be wrong, but this sounds similar to the way nobody seems to have any disagreements when CFAR tries to get them to practice Double Crux, but then it’s lunch time and people get into all kinds of arguments while eating.
Surely you have opinions about, EG, the design of LW, which come up during LW meetings? Some of these can be turned into bets about user behavior or such.
I myself don’t bet much, but every so often there will be a big discussion at MIRI about some mathematical question or some silly Fermi-estimation example, and people will place bets. People might hypothetically place (fractional?) Kelly bets in these situations. Maybe I’ll try it.
LessWrong team does indeed disagree on all sorts of things. But… once you actually operationalize things, bets often turn out to be pretty boring. (The heated disagreement tends to come more from how people are emotionally relating to something).
We did recently have a Prediction Day where we made lots of predictions about various LessWrong outcomes (i.e. how many people would purchase the upcoming book, how many people would participate in the 2019 Review, etc).
There were disagreements, but few disagreements where people had strong enough opinions that survived operationalization to make bets. But, I do think $100 Reserve Fractional Kelly Betting would be appropriate.