Not yet that I am aware. But you (or I) would certainly be in the running to be the first.
I don’t care about the conditional probability P( me gets banned for my opinions | someone gets banned for their opinion ) if the probability P( someone gets banned for their opinion ) is extremely low, which I believe it is. Actually, I don’t even believe the conditional probability is so high for me; though it could be a bit higher for you, but anyway...
I believe the probability of either of us getting banned on LW during the next five years, assuming we continue writing our comments more or less the same way we do now (which I intend to) and don’t participate in any activity such as mass-downvoting; and assuming that MIRI and CFAR will continue to exist and be connected with LW… is less than 2%.
And I believe some people had expressed that many opinions I believe you and I hold are simply beyond the pale and should not be “tolerated”.
I agree with you in this. I just believe those people don’t have enough power to enforce their threats here, and they are more likely to leave this web disappointed than remain here long enough to gain that power. Also, contrarianism works against them.
He is reported to have said:
users who he did not think displayed sufficient rationality.
No talk of “sides” here, just rationality.
My model of him says that he detected “insufficient rationality” when people disagreed with him politically. What you quoted is how it felt to him from inside. (I admit I cannot prove this.)
I just believe those people don’t have enough power to enforce their threats here,
Today. But it’s rather telling that the threats were made and discussed seriously.
You’re not from the US, right?
Things have been pretty wacky here in the last year, with numerous high profile cases of people losing their jobs/status/property for Thoughtcrime. I would have considered these highly unlikely just a year ago.
My model of him …
My prior would put that as fairly likely. Without going through the posts of the people involved, and I won’t, it’s hard to know. I have a vague “reasonable guy” tag in my head for him. Could be for similar reasons.
No, I’m not from US. But I read internet, so I am probably aware of some things.
it’s rather telling that the threats were made and discussed seriously.
And they achieved zero success. Because this is Sparta… ahem, Less Wrong.
And if they tried the same thing next time, there even wouldn’t be so much drama again, because we are already inoculated. “There are more nerd boys than nerd girls, therefore nerds are sexists!” Yeah, already heard it, not impressed.
numerous high profile cases of people losing their jobs/status/property for Thoughtcrime
This deserves a longer debate (and LW is probably not the right place to have it) about specific details. I would guess that in most of these cases, those people were thrown overboard by their colleagues, in an effort to protect money from government or wide public. Less Wrong does not take government money, and our public supporters are mostly contrarians by nature. In other words, we are not a university, and we cannot be destroyed by a Twitter campaign.
Most importantly, I don’t believe Eliezer would jump on a political correctness bandwagon. Also, there are already many “shocking” news about LW (basilisk, polyamory, etc.); it would be too late to try a PR coverup.
I would guess that in most of these cases, those people were thrown overboard by their colleagues, in an effort to protect money from government or wide public.
Yes. People cave. Much easier for everyone to throw someone to the mob than to fight. That’s the magic of people who mean it. Small groups of motivated people who mean it can easily cow larger groups who don’t want a fight.
Most importantly, I don’t believe Eliezer would jump on a political correctness bandwagon.
If he has meant at all what he has said about UFAI, he’ll turn over the keys of LessWrong to the Thought Police in a second if it further the efforts for FAI, for much the same reasons that everyone else caves.
I began to weigh those who followed me, balancing
them one against another, asking who I would risk, and who I would
sacrifice, to what end. It was strange how many fewer pieces I lost, once
I knew what they were worth.
Even a small, motivated group can destroy value. Everyone caves, unless they’re equally looney.
I don’t care about the conditional probability P( me gets banned for my opinions | someone gets banned for their opinion ) if the probability P( someone gets banned for their opinion ) is extremely low, which I believe it is. Actually, I don’t even believe the conditional probability is so high for me; though it could be a bit higher for you, but anyway...
I believe the probability of either of us getting banned on LW during the next five years, assuming we continue writing our comments more or less the same way we do now (which I intend to) and don’t participate in any activity such as mass-downvoting; and assuming that MIRI and CFAR will continue to exist and be connected with LW… is less than 2%.
I agree with you in this. I just believe those people don’t have enough power to enforce their threats here, and they are more likely to leave this web disappointed than remain here long enough to gain that power. Also, contrarianism works against them.
My model of him says that he detected “insufficient rationality” when people disagreed with him politically. What you quoted is how it felt to him from inside. (I admit I cannot prove this.)
Today. But it’s rather telling that the threats were made and discussed seriously.
You’re not from the US, right?
Things have been pretty wacky here in the last year, with numerous high profile cases of people losing their jobs/status/property for Thoughtcrime. I would have considered these highly unlikely just a year ago.
My prior would put that as fairly likely. Without going through the posts of the people involved, and I won’t, it’s hard to know. I have a vague “reasonable guy” tag in my head for him. Could be for similar reasons.
No, I’m not from US. But I read internet, so I am probably aware of some things.
And they achieved zero success. Because this is Sparta… ahem, Less Wrong.
And if they tried the same thing next time, there even wouldn’t be so much drama again, because we are already inoculated. “There are more nerd boys than nerd girls, therefore nerds are sexists!” Yeah, already heard it, not impressed.
This deserves a longer debate (and LW is probably not the right place to have it) about specific details. I would guess that in most of these cases, those people were thrown overboard by their colleagues, in an effort to protect money from government or wide public. Less Wrong does not take government money, and our public supporters are mostly contrarians by nature. In other words, we are not a university, and we cannot be destroyed by a Twitter campaign.
Most importantly, I don’t believe Eliezer would jump on a political correctness bandwagon. Also, there are already many “shocking” news about LW (basilisk, polyamory, etc.); it would be too late to try a PR coverup.
Well...
(I agree with the rest of your comment.)
I think many would not characterize that action as jumping on the political correctness bandwagon.
Yes. People cave. Much easier for everyone to throw someone to the mob than to fight. That’s the magic of people who mean it. Small groups of motivated people who mean it can easily cow larger groups who don’t want a fight.
If he has meant at all what he has said about UFAI, he’ll turn over the keys of LessWrong to the Thought Police in a second if it further the efforts for FAI, for much the same reasons that everyone else caves.
Even a small, motivated group can destroy value. Everyone caves, unless they’re equally looney.