Gut feelings have pretty bad resolution. In particular, I don’t think gut feelings can differentiate between, say, 2% and 3%.
As a rough approximation (and, possibly, subject to the typical mind fallacy :-D), I think the gut thinks in these categories, assuming the probability is of something bad happening:
Too low-probability to even think about it.
Too low-probability to worry about it unless the consequences are really bad.
Not likely, but worrisome—worth guarding against unless prevention is expensive/unpleasant.
Feels dangerous, there is motivation to do something about it.
It’s coming my way, active measures are called for.
I’m fucked.
For fine resolution you can train your mind. I’m not sure how trainable your gut is.
Gut feelings have pretty bad resolution. In particular, I don’t think gut feelings can differentiate between, say, 2% and 3%.
As a rough approximation (and, possibly, subject to the typical mind fallacy :-D), I think the gut thinks in these categories, assuming the probability is of something bad happening:
Too low-probability to even think about it.
Too low-probability to worry about it unless the consequences are really bad.
Not likely, but worrisome—worth guarding against unless prevention is expensive/unpleasant.
Feels dangerous, there is motivation to do something about it.
It’s coming my way, active measures are called for.
I’m fucked.
For fine resolution you can train your mind. I’m not sure how trainable your gut is.